US Forecast. February 27-March 6, 2010. By Weather Advance Model Forecaster: Adrian Howard

Hello everyone! Hope your Friday is going great. The computer models have consistently shown a Storm System in the gulf of mexico riding up the coast for some time now. And with that brings concerns that their might be a major winter storm for parts of the southeast and possibly northeast/Mid-Atlantic. Most Computer models at  the moment show a strong low pressure system riding along the coast up to the northeast. Now, along comes the cold air with this storm system, and it would generate even more cold air, with abundant moisture, probably more than what the computer models are showing.

• So anywhere from the I-20 corridor up to I-85, and then to the mountains, all have a chance of seeing some wintry weather.
•  The further away this storms tracks from the coast the lesser amounts for I-85+mountains and more for I-20 corridor.
•  The closer the storm tracks to the coast the more accumulations for I-85+mountains and less for I-20 corridor.

* 6zGFS

This model shows snow falling from Atlanta,GA over to around Columbia,SC. Then northward to Greenville-Spartanburg,SC and Charlotte, and up the mountains. The low pressure would be near the coast, and would be a strong system. This system would also bring snow up to other areas of  NC, and to the mid-atlantic and northeast.

* 12zGFS

This model shows snow for areas near Atlanta,GA over to near Columbia,SC. Then up to Greenville-Spartanburg,SC + Charlotte,NC. And the mountains and other areas in western and Central NC would be seeing snow. This track would bring snow to areas in the mid-atlantic/northeast aswell.

* 18z GFS

This model shows the low pressure a bit closer to the coast, which means more moisture for areas inland. Snow would be falling from areas near Atlanta,GA and over to areas near Columbia,SC. Then up to Greenville-Spartanburg + Charlotte,NC. The mountains and other areas in NC would also get snow, then up to the mid-atlantic/northeast.

* OzCanadian

This model shows the low near the coast, which means more moisture inland, and this model shows alot of moisture. Snow would be falling from Birmingham,AL to Atlanta,GA to Columbia,SC. Then up towards Greenville-Spartanburg + Charlotte,NC. Aswell as areas of the mountains and NC. This low would then spread moisture northward.

*This is not a forecast, but a potential of what may happen from what the computer models are showing. This storm system could change , so pay attention to  the latest updates from Dante,Adrian, and myself on this potential Winter Storm.*

-Miller Hyatt

Hello everyone, This storm that has just passed was very difficult to forecast. Strong winds will definitely come from this storm though. As we head on into next week though, the models are showing a storm going way out to sea. Right now I am not thinking that, will be the solution. As I have stated before, the computer models cannot handle more than one storm at a time. Right now I think the track will be in scenario 2 in the picture bellow scenario 1. All we have to watch however is how much cold air will remain intact for this storm to produce snow. Right now looking at the models, I think the cold air will hold from just west or Raleigh/Durham to Richmond, VA and into Washington D.C and Baltimore. There will be a lot of blocking still in the northeast, which will cause the storm to move just strait East after it gets to the Ocean city Maryland Coast. So areas that Got hammered North and East of the Maison Dixon line, may not really see much more than a few flurries from this storm. Right now That is what I think will happen. We will have to wait and see what the models do over the next 4 days as this storm finally gets out the way. Myself, Miller & Adrian will keep you updated as this month of March seems to be roaring in like a lion.

Scenario #1 UNLIKELY

Scenario #2 Most Likely

I don’t know about you but I am really getting tired of snow and this cold, I am ready for things to warm up. As this storm passes it will leave a good 2-4″ of snow across the Washington D.C. Metro and up to a foot close to Philadelphia.  But the next day temperatures should reach the upper 30′s and low 40′s all up and down the coast, So any snow will melt here in Washington and A fast and furious melt off of the snow up where the feet of snow fell. As you head closer into March, with the higher sun angel it will be much harder for the cold air to remain in place more than a couple days. Also radiation warming will occur which means the snow will melt off even faster. I cannot wait until spring and the flowers and we get to warm up some. I really still think that by March 12th things should really start to warm up.

COUNTDOWN TO SPRING 2010

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Hello everyone, and happy Tuesday! Ive been looking at the models, and they are consistent with the fact that snow will fall in areas of north Georgia,Upstate SC, and NC. Now, again, the mountains of GA,SC, and NC have the best shot of seeing accumulating snowfall. Other areas have a slight chance depending on how cold it stays when the moisture arrives. If theirs more moisture, more of a chance to see accumulating snow. Also their are more storms down the road that could pose a wintry weather threat to the southeast, so stay tuned.

I. 18zGFS

II. 12zGFS

* These two models show snow falling in areas of Central/Northern GA, Upstate SC, and most of NC. Accumulations would be likely in the mountains. Other areas have a small chance, depending on how much moisture their is. *

SNOWMAP:

* Stay with Dante,Adrian, and myself for continuing coverage on this winter storm *

-Miller Hyatt

The 12Z GFS has pumped up snowfall prediction totals from an earlier 1-2″ to a now 6-12″ storm. It is possible for up to 8″ of snow here in Washington D.C and over 12″ of snow in Philadelphia. However the 12Z Nam model backed off that Idea into the Idea of 1-2″ and we are now in the dusting to an inch section. That means we will have to sit back and watch to see which model will give and which one will not. Stay tunned as Myself, Miller & Adrian Keep you updated with this storm.

12Z GFS Model Run Snowfall Totals

I just looked at the latest computer models and they are showing the potential for some wintry precipitation on Wednesday Morning. Not heavy, but light-possibly moderate rain/snow. Right now it is tough to pinpoint the exact timing of the rain turning to snow, but as it looks now, it will be a rain/snow mixture.Anywhere from NE GA moutains, Upstate SC, and Western+Central NC, all have the Potential to see some snow falling Wednesday Morning. I will try to get more info by late tonight and tommorow regarding totals,etc.

**** Oz Nam Model

This model is for Early Wednesday Morning. Light to possibly Moderate Snow would be falling in the sky in NC+SC, after moving out of GA. Right now, it looks like the Mountains have the best shot of seeing accumulating snow, because their temperatures have been cool enough not to warm the ground too much. Other areas have the chance, we just have to see how much moisture their is along with the surface temp,etc.

***** Oz GFS Model

Same scenario, This model is for Early Wednesday Morning. Light to possibly Moderate Snow would be falling in the sky in NC+SC, Again, the Mountains look to have the Best shot of seeing accumulating snow, but other areas it might be possible depending on how much moisture their is and the ground temp,etc.

* Stay with Dante,Adrian, and myself as we give you the latest on these winter storms *

-Miller Hyatt

The poll will be open from Today at 2:00pm through March 5th 2010. Then the one with the highest votes will be posted as the header for spring 2010.

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