Winter Outlook 2009-2010/U.S and Canada/ ( Part 2 )

Winter/Fall Forecast 2009-2010

Hello! My Name is Miller Hyatt. I am a Future Meteorologist and I’m on YouTube as Sillymiller123. My News Organization is Gwc News HD. We are partnered with Weather Advance, WjtwNews11, and NayichiNews. We are very proud to be apart of YouTube.

Fall Outlook 2009

Well the fall outlook will consist of many different aspects to it. Even though we have a weak El nino going on now, the el nino COULD turn into a moderate El nino by the fall. Which means more rain for us, which is good? Most of the computer models show some colder air for the middle to late September. Then some show some improvement in the drought in south Texas, Central North Carolina, and Upstate SC. All these things will be welcomed because we want all these things. NOAA has their forecasts and these say that the southeast will have equal chances of warm, cool.cold temperatures. I’m going with near normal to below normal temperatures. The precipitation side will be normal to above normal. The reason is because the el nino will have a little more effect on us and we might see more rain. I’m kind of iffy on this because if we don’t have as much rain then our temperatures might be warmer or cooler than normal. So, I’m predicting Normal rainfall because of the trough in the northeast, diving down into the southeast occasionally. The rest of the country: warm in the southwest and warm in the northeast which has had not much of a summer, and they need some warmth. Precipitation will be below normal in the Pacific Northwest and above normal in the Midwest. As you know all these things will and can change. So, don’t get all hyped, becuase you or someplace might not get what the models are predicting.

Winter 09-10 Outlook

Now this is where it gets pretty tricky. We have an elnino, but will it become a moderate or strong elninio. Some meteorologists are predicting that this elnino will strengthen in the fall and weaken in the winter, which is perfect for snow lovers in the east coast. Now, I kind of like their scenario because some models are now believing that scenario. Most of the models now show it not getting as strong as previously thought. So, What I think will happen is this elnino will strengthen into a moderate to possibly strong elnino in the fall and weaken to a weak to moderate elnino during the winter. This scenario is perfect for our area on the east coast and we want the snow and cold. SO, If you like the cold and want the snow, this forecast is for you. Unless you are in the Midwest around Chicago where they could get less snow this year, and they have had their share of snow these past winters and the east coast is due for a major snow this winter. Not saying that it will be snowy and cold all winter, their will be some warm periods and some rain. The Midwest will get some snow and cold, but just not as much as the east coast. The major influence is going to be the subtropical jet will be a possible player this winter. This will mean more Gulf of Mexico storms developing and riding up the coast. Some remember the 93 super storms which brought some areas in the southeast to close, like Atlanta and Birmingham. Now im not saying that we will get a foot of snow this winter. It’s just that when you have all that moisture in the air that means more snowfall. IT doesn’t necessarily have to be cold enough to produce snow. So, the west coast will be warmer than usual except for the areas around san fran and south than that. So, this is my winter outlook and I will update it next month. Have a great fall!

Sincerely,

Miller Hyatt

Weather Advance Meteorologist

GwcNewsHD Manager

ps: im sorry if the maps look a bit sloppy, i was rushing a little bit and i was trying to get my forecast in for people to see it. Also, i dont have that technology to make a PERFECT Map, so i appreciate it if you dont complain about them, thank you!

Winter Outlook 2009-2010 Update Part 2 Issued Nov.6th

First off, im so sorry for all the confusion ive brought to everyone evolving the timing of this forecast. I’ve been busy this week and I haven’t been able to finish the forecast on Nov.4^th. I did post a video showing what I have done so far, but some people were confused. So, I have finally finished the winter forecast and hopefully everyone likes it and will have a wonderful winter. Hope for some snow and cold weather.

Factors we are looking at:

      First, the warm waters of the eastern pacific ocean.

      Second, the unusually wet fall in the southeast.

      Third, the number of sunspots is low

      Fourth, the snow cover in the Midwest and Canada.

      Fifth, The Jet Stream Patterns

      I expect the Elnino to strengthen slightly through late fall and early winter. We expect it to get to around moderate to high elnino, but then to weaken a bit As you can see, the temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are warm and are getting warmer. We are currently around Moderate Elnino Strength. We back to low end moderate El Niño.  So, what does this mean for the United States?

What does a Typical Elnino Bring to the United States?

• The South Usually gets Cooler than Normal Temperatures, with above average precipitation.
• The Northeast usually gets average to above average temperatures, with average to below average precipitation.
• The Midwest usually gets Warmer than normal weather with average to below average precipitation.
• The west usually gets Warmer than normal temperatures with average to below average precipitation. The southwest usually gets the same, but with above average precipitation.

What has The Weather In the United States been like this Fall?     lNortheast: The Northeast has had cooler than average temperatures with above average precipitation. Even some frosts and snowfall have occurred in some locations. lMidwest: The Midwest has had some colder than normal temperatures at some points this fall, with some areas getting A LOT of snow. lSouth: The south has had normal to below normal temperatures with above average precipitation. Some areas including the NC mountains have had light snowfall. Other areas have been hit hard with flooding rains. lNorthwest: The northwest has had near average to above average temperatures with average to below average precipitation in most areas. lThe southwest has had mostly average to above average temperatures with average to below average precipitation.

Looks like to be Average to Above average snowfall around Southeastern Canada, around Toronto,etc. Looks like  average snowfall once you get to eastern canada. Then once you get to western canada it gets to be slightly below average snowfall. SouthWestern Canada will have average to slightly below average snowfall. Then northern canada will get A mix of average and some areas getting slightly below average snowfall. Temperatures look to be like Average in northern canada. Average to slightly below average once you get to southeastern canada. Warmer than normal in western canada, still some chilly periods but not a bitter winter, compared to canada standards. So, hope ya like the forecasts and enjoy the winter!

-Miller Hyatt