Hi, this is okie333 from Tulsa, Oklahoma, with a forecast for winter 2010-2011.
I’ve found 5 analogs for next winter based on the NINO 3.4 Peak/DJF values and the JFM AO: 58-59, 66-67, 69-70, 77-78, and 87-88. This was based on every El Niño that had an AO -1.0 or lower.
| Winter | Peak 3.4 | DJF 3.4 | JFM AO | Modoki? |
| 09-10 | 1.8 | 1.7 | -1.9 | YES |
| 57-58 | 1.7 | 1.7 | -1.5 | YES |
| 65-66 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -1.4 | YES |
| 68-69 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -2.0 | YES |
| 76-77 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -1.3 | NO |
| 86-87 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -1.0 | YES |
58-59: Pros: Best match by far; even the graph of the trimonthly Niño progression matches up closely. Cons: None, except AO was slightly higher 57-58 than in 09-10.
66-67: Pros: Good Niño and AO match. Cons: AO slightly higher 65-66, Niño progression timetable does not match much at all.
69-70: Pros: Best AO match, OK Niño match. Cons: Niño not nearly as strong.
77-78: Pros: AO matches fairly well. Cons: Worst match of the bunch. Niño was very weak and not a Modoki, and AO was a bit on the high side.
87-88: Pros: Good Niño match, OK AO match. Cons: AO not as good of a match: only down to -1.0.
For those of you in the Central/Southern Plains:
Tulsa, OK, snowfall and temperatures (Note: In all tables, blue years were in the top 10 in terms of snowfall for the 50/51-09/10 period.):
| Year | Snow | Temp |
| Average | 9.1 | 39.5 |
| 58-59 | 19.5 | 37.3 |
| 66-67 | 5.8 | 38.6 |
| 69-70 | 20.4 | 36.8 |
| 77-78 | 11.7 | 31.2 |
| 87-88 | 18.2 | 38.5 |
| 10-11 | ??? | ??? |
All of them were colder than the winter before, and all but 66-67 were snowier than the winter before. 77-78 was the second coldest winter ever.
YEARS AFTER:
| Year | Snow | Temp |
| Average | 9.1 | 39.5 |
| 59-60 | 19.4 | 36.0 |
| 67-68 | 17.0 | 37.6 |
| 70-71 | 6.5 | 39.3 |
| 78-79 | 18.9 | 30.4 |
| 88-89 | 16.5 | 39.8 |
| 11-12 | ??? | ??? |
Every one of these except 70-71 was snowier and colder than the pre-analog winter. 78-79 was the coldest winter ever.
PRE-ANALOG YEARS:
| Year | Snow | Temp |
| Average | 9.1 | 39.5 |
| 57-58 | 17.2 | 40.1 |
| 65-66 | 9.4 | 39.6 |
| 68-69 | 8.0 | 38.3 |
| 76-77 | 11.3 | 36.5 |
| 86-87 | 13.3 | 40.3 |
| 09-10 | 22.8 | 34.8 |
I did not consider the Tulsa data when choosing my analog years; I only considered the pre-analog ENSO and AO.
All 2010-2011 analogs:
1958-1959 only:
The following map is a quick guess at possible 2011-2012 analogs and is unrelated to the 2010-2011 winter season.
YEARS AFTER ANALOGS:
If, and a big IF, 2010-2011 ends up being a La Niña, I doubt it will be a “classic” La Niña. The current CFS forecast is a classic Strong West-based La Niña pattern for the US. Let’s test it with the baseball analogy:
I highly doubt a La Niña, should it form, will get beyond weak; and it definitely won’t be strong IMO. The models from April all forecasted way too low for the June ENSO, which will likely turn out at -0.3 or -0.4. THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING IT. Strike one.
They are forecasting a West-based La Niña, with ENSO 4 being the coldest region. Currently I see very little cold water underneath Region 4, and in fact a warm anomaly beneath the surface is very slowly expanding eastward toward Region 4. The upwelling has long been in an eastward direction, and there is no reason to believe that this will not continue into the winter. Thus, it will likely be east-based or with no dominant basis. Strike two.
Last but not least (probably most importantly), is that this will likely not be an ordinary winter. I am seeing very cold SSTs developing in a region of the northern Atlantic Ocean that has a moderate to strong positive correlation with the NAO index seven to eight months out (that is, warm temps in June mean positive NAO for winter). Also, very warm SSTs are developing in a region that has a moderate negative correlation with the NAO for winter (cold temps in June mean positive NAO for winter). This, combined with low solar activity and QBO, possibly with the Arctic volcanic eruptions of 2008-2010 added in, leads me to believe that there will be another winter of extreme low AO and NAO, possibly even outdoing 2009-2010. While there may not be snowstorms reaching into Pensacola (or will there be?) this winter, I wouldn’t doubt for a second that Philly and DC get another above-average snow winter (though I’m 90% sure it won’t be as snowy as last winter for them). There will be one change IMO based on the correlations. The main period for low NAO will be January through March, rather than December through February (my best guess would be late December through mid-March for the timing of the super-negative NAO). Note that over the long-range (seasonal or longer), the AO and NAO have such a strongly positive linear one-to-one correlation that they are essentially the same index (many sources even say that they are simply two different ways of measuring the same thing). Strike three, the CFS/CPC is OUT!!!
By the way, here are the maps. Top map is correlation, bottom map is SST. Positive SSTs in areas with positive correlation, and negative SSTs in areas with negative correlation, both predict a positive NAO for the winter. Negative SSTs in areas with positive correlation, and positive SSTs in areas with negative correlation, both predict a negative NAO for the winter. This particular instance applies to February, though January and March turn out highly negative as well. This probably does not mean too much, but look at the red area under Japan on the first map (near 20N 130W). That area is about the only cool region for miles around on the second map. Notice the other orange area on the first map due ESE of the red area. Look ESE of the cool area and you’ll see another cool area, also lying away from other cool areas. Again, those two small cool areas are probably a curiosity and nothing more, but it is still interesting to note just how strong the signs toward a negative NAO are.
